Malaphax Posted July 6, 2015 Report Share Posted July 6, 2015 So while all the craziness has been going on in Greece, there's another storm brewing over in China. Here's a few ugly pictures of the roller coaster known as the Shanghai Index: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/panic-china-central-bank-steps-bailout-stocks It's gotten so bad that they've actually banned their social security fund from selling stock. No I'm not kidding. Financial magazine Caijing reported on Monday that the National Social Security Fund had told its external fund managers they could buy stocks but were not permitted to sell them. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-06/peak-desperation-china-bans-selling-stocks-pension-funds This 5 year chart of the chinese indices shows explosive growth and catastrophic collapse. http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1436222425069&chddm=296671&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=SHE:399001&cmptdms=0&q=SHA:000001&ntsp=0&ei=xwObVfGfBdGJ0gS9uY-QAg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 So the China situation is getting worse. Only 22% of their public companies are being actively traded. The rest seem to have voluntarily suspended trading or have hit their daily loss limits on the exchange. This is looking like a much bigger shit show than Greece at the moment. http://qz.com/447630/chinas-plunging-stock-market-has-virtually-shut-down/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 much more likely to affect us than greece Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted July 17, 2015 Report Share Posted July 17, 2015 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33572959 Also Google mentioned etsy today and this happened: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted July 22, 2015 Report Share Posted July 22, 2015 Going off of my above post, this is what the opposite looks like: http://time.com/3967315/aapl-stock/ So less than a week ago Google manages to gain $60Bn, and today Apple manages to lose $60Bn. If it wasn't part of my job to watch the stock market... I wouldn't watch the stock market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 This is a cool chart showing the big venture captial investors and what Unicorns they have successfully invested in. It's interesting to note that the number of unicorns has increased dramatically, leading many in the industry to suspect another tech boom is occurring/imminent. I think it's crazy that looking at this image I don't recognize half of these companies that are valued at over $1Bn. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-28/how-goldman-sachs-became-a-tech-investing-powerhouse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted August 24, 2015 Report Share Posted August 24, 2015 Some un-creative people are already calling today "Black Monday." Here's some fantastically funny graphs that came out of today: This graph is DOW Futures prices, they moved 4500 points total intraday which is a serious fucking roller coaster. Here's some charts on Volatility and the Volatility of Volatility (oh boy I love derivatives). In general today was a roller coaster for the market, we'll probably see more ups and downs in the coming weeks and the Fed might even get scared enough to back off a rate hike this year. The funny part is that this is stemming from the Chinese markets which have very little direct US investment. Additionally the Chinese markets are notoriously volatile because of the very high levels of individual investment (versus institutional investing). I'm more interested in the Chinese government response to this mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Great Article from Pew Research regarding the shrinking middle class. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhla Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Great Article from Pew Research regarding the shrinking middle class. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/ .... They had a bit on NPR yesterday talking about this research and eventually started talking about "how to fix it". None of the solutions thrown out sounded nice. It seemed like there was no "neat" solution to this problem. As much as it appears to be a bad thing that needs to be fixed the solutions made me very apprehensive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Yea, I would imagine that most of the solutions involved changing tax codes (which I always have trepidation about) or pushing for increases in minimum/living wages. While I absolutely believe that our tax code needs massive overhauling/simplifying, I don't have faith in anyone at the congressional level to do it properly. There are some universally stupid pieces of the US tax code: like taxing ex-patriots on income earned outside the US (we are the only country that does this) to the absurd nature of tying private health care to tax penalties. Honestly at this point, I'd much rather the government focus on the business tax codes and stop large companies from playing "hide the cash" overseas or doing stuff like Tax Inversions, which are grotesque abuses of the current tax codes we already have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35117405 The Fed raised rates by .25% Markets currently seem to be up because of the news. I'll hold my breath on what this actually means and how it will affect lending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Happy new year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 yea shitstorm in china Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Puerto Rico missed their first debt payment of $174M http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/05/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-defaults-on-debt-payments.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I've been doing some minor research on historical returns, which I will post a bit later. But I did come across a great page on Morningstar which shows returns across mutual funds/ETFs. Here's a snapshot from 1/1/16: http://web.archive.org/web/20160101064758/http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/ And here's the live version: http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/ tl;dr Last year wasn't great but it wasn't terrible either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhla Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 So they were saying the stop controls for China stock market will be kept off tomorrow? I thought I heard that. http://i.imgur.com/bPEQh5A.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well they hit the limits 2 days in a row. It looks to be up a bit right now. I have a feeling there's some heavy handed government manipulation purchase of equities to help shore up the markets. Here's the Shanghai Index: http://www.google.com/finance?cid=7521596 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has advised clients to brace for a "cataclysmic year" and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach $US16 a barrel. The bank's credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008. "Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small," it said in a client note. http://www.businessinsider.com/rbs-sell-everything-2016-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhla Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Regardless of reality with an article title like "RBS: 'Sell everything'", some people are going to panic and do just that. Ladies and gentlemen.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now for a lesson boys and girls. Why are all the banks getting absolutely clobbered? Well the answer my dear friends has to deal with oil and to a lesser degree China. All of these banks have huge exposure to oil and gas companies that cashed in on the shale boom. Unfortunately shale companies don't really make money when oil is at $28.46 a barrel. Now all of those loans are starting to go bad. Just how bad? Well.... really really bad. Wells Fargo: Currently sitting on $17B in Energy Sector debt, the vast majority is not investment grade. WFC lost $831 in Q4 on Energy Sector debt. WFC increased their loan loss reserves for 2016 to $2B. Morgan Stanley has $15.9B Energy exposure and Goldman Sachs has $10B. JP Morgan Chase: Undisclosed amount of Energy Sector debt, but increased their loan loss reserves by $136M in Q4, of that $124M was related to Oil and Gas. JPM’s loan loss reserve for 2016 is estimated at $750M. Across the banking sector analysts roughly estimate between 1-6% exposure to Energy Sector debt. Defaults are expected to increase if oil prices remain low. Bank loan reserves are low and predicted to increase, and increased defaults could hurt stock prices for larger banks. This is an endemic issue. Citigroup has $20.5B in assets tied to China, while JPM holds $16.3B, WFC holds only $2.4B. This is direct from the Wells Fargo earnings call last week: <Q - Mike L. Mayo>: What percent of the $17 billion is not investment grade?<A - John R. Shrewsberry>: I would say most of it. Most of it. <Q - Mike L. Mayo>: So most of the $17 billion is non-investment grade. <A - John R. Shrewsberry>: Correct. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-17/wells-fargos-problem-emerges-17-billion-junk-energy-exposure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's something I made to help outline market returns and volatility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://investor.dn.no/#/Oversikt/ That's a Norwegian financial website, why do I care? Because their market ticker is sexy as hell. Click on the globe and drag it and you get historical market information. They also list brent spot (oil) prices right next to current markets. Another website I've been poking around with is this: https://www.tiingo.com/ You can upload a portfolio and check historical returns, or even the correlation/beta of the portfolio. It also pulls up news related to any stocks you hold, although quite a bit is clickbait crap. It's pretty nifty, I just wish it didn't lag to hell when you've got lots of securities listed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhla Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 source - http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35436187 In a surprise move, the Bank of Japan has introduced a negative interest rate.The benchmark rate of -0.1% means that commercial banks will be charged by the central bank for some deposits.It is designed to encourage them to use their reserves to lend to businesses in an attempt to counter Japan's economic stagnation.The charge does not directly apply to ordinary customers' accounts.The country is desperate to increase spending and investment..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malaphax Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 Japan's economy is weird. You have zombie banks, and zombie industries which shamble along without any intention of changing their strategies to correct their issues. One example of this is Sharp: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-20/japan-must-let-zombie-companies-die If you thought the US government bailout for banks and auto companies was bad imagine if they bailed out a company and the company said "great now we can continue to do the same shit we've been doing for the last 10-20 years that hasn't been working!" At least there was some semblance of change that happened in the auto industry here, and some weak capital requirements were put in place for the banks. I sincerely hope that Japan can find a way to keep moving forward and let some of their larger industries close down, but sadly their society doesn't really prioritize entrepreneurial spirit like the US. I have a feeling if Sharp went bust, no one would step in to replace it, it's market share would probably just get divvied up among it's competitors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhla Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 article - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/goldman-sachs-says-it-may-be-forced-to-fundamentally-question-how-capitalism-is-working Have not had a chance to read it in detail, just skimmed quickly, but it seems interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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